In the upcoming year 2026, Nepal, along with Bangladesh and Laos, is confirmed to graduate from the category of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to Developing Countries. This follows the achievement of key indicators set by the United Nations’ Committee for Development Policy (CDP). By 2023, Nepal had met the minimum thresholds for both the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI). Last year, Nepal also met the third criterion — per capita Gross National Income (GNI).

According to the updated standards published for 2025, the GNI threshold is USD 1,306 per capita. Nepal’s GNI has reached USD 1,404. Similarly, Nepal’s Human Assets Index has reached 77.58, significantly above the threshold of 66. In the past, this index was below 25. Despite recent progress, the National Planning Commission (NPC) has stated that maintaining the required standards, especially in the EVI, remains a challenge due to persistent economic and environmental risks.

Nepal has been listed as an LDC by the UN since 1971. To qualify for graduation, a country must meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews. Nepal first met two of the indicators in 2018. However, due to the 2015 earthquake and the subsequent trade blockade, Nepal requested a deferral of graduation. The UN, acknowledging the request, decided in December 2021 that Nepal would graduate in December 2026.

Over the next three fiscal years, further improvements in key indicators are expected. With an average economic growth rate of 7.1% projected over this period and a low population growth rate, per capita income is anticipated to rise further.

Progress in education and health sectors — supported by federal, provincial, and local government spending, as well as investment from private and non-government sectors — is expected to strengthen these gains. While the share of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries in the GDP continues to decline, improved transportation infrastructure has reduced inaccessibility, contributing to reduced economic and environmental risks, according to the NPC.

Nepal’s per capita income is projected to rise to approximately USD 2,100 by fiscal year 2084/85 (2027/28). According to the NPC’s Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, per capita income is expected to reach:

• USD 1,660 in FY 2082/83 (2025/26),

• USD 1,859 in FY 2083/84 (2026/27), and

• USD 2,087 in FY 2084/85 (2027/28).

In the current fiscal year, Nepal’s per capita income is estimated at USD 1,517, up from USD 1,467 last year — a projected increase of USD 570 over three years.

Correspondingly, Nepal’s GDP is estimated to grow:

• To NPR 6.107 trillion in the current fiscal year (from NPR 5.704 trillion last year),

• To NPR 6.829 trillion in FY 2082/83,

• To NPR 7.789 trillion in FY 2083/84,

• And up to NPR 8.909 trillion in FY 2084/85.

The average annual investment is also expected to rise:

• From NPR 1.713 trillion this fiscal year,

• To NPR 1.888 trillion next year,

• And NPR 2.336 trillion in FY 2083/84.

By FY 2084/85, total investment is projected to reach NPR 2.659 trillion. Despite this, current data shows the economy is growing at a sluggish pace.